2023 NFL Picks Week 4: Fearing the Correction
One week you get burned by a backdoor cover, the next week it’s rescuing your (second?) Monday Night pick and capping off a heck of a weekend. The Rams’ touchdown with just 1:03 left gave us a tidy 11-5 record in Week 3 and moved us 14 games over .500 for the year. It’s definitely the best mark we’ve had through three weeks, so I’m starting to feel a correction coming. The lines this week are tricky, with just five teams favored by more than 4 points, but let’s see what we can do!
Green Bay Packers +1 vs. Detroit Lions
The Packers have only looked good in one game this year, and it was against my Bears. It’s not quite the same as going 3-0 in the preseason, but it’s not much more meaningful. I think Jordan Love has looked fine, but the Lions’ defense has been playing well and we haven’t seen Green Bay string together touchdowns against a quality opponent. The matchup is worse on the other side of the ball, where Detroit’s offense is miles better than what the Packers are rolling out these days. The Lions have won three in a row in this rivalry, and I don’t see why this game should play out differently than last year’s meetings did. Lions -1
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Two disappointing teams facing off here, with both Jacksonville (10th) and Atlanta (8th) ranking in the top-ten in offensive DVOA last season but averaging under 20 points per game through three weeks. Neither team can really lean on their defense, so any path to the playoffs is going to require a turnaround. I just have a little more confidence in Trevor Lawrence than I do Desmond Ridder, and with the Jags at home I like them to cover a field goal while the Falcons continue figuring out how to use Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts, and Drake London together. Jaguars -3
Tennessee Titans +2.5 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I wish I didn’t have to pick anyone here, but every game each week is the deal. The Titans have looked inept against non-Chargers’ defenses, but they’re home dogs here against a Cincinnati team with a clearly injured Joe Burrow and plenty of questions of their own. These teams have played close games over the past couple seasons, and I’m predicting another low-scoring matchup here. Between Burrow’s calf and recent history, I’ll take the points. Titans +2.5
Chicago Bears +3.5 vs. Denver Broncos
If you’re a home underdog against a team last seen allowing 70 points, you might be the Chicago Bears. There’s nothing encouraging to take from Chicago’s play through three weeks, and while the Broncos might have quit on their quarterback and/or new head coach, they’re far more functional than Chicago. Until I see signs of competence, I’m picking against my team. Broncos -3.5
Buffalo Bills -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
This looks like the best game of the week between the top two teams in the league by DVOA. After last week’s 70-point explosion, it’s hard to believe the Bills are still ahead of the Dolphins, but that’s the benefit of being a balanced team. Almost everything is telling me to pick Miami; these teams met three times last season, with the Dolphins winning by 2 in Miami and the Bills winning by 3 twice in Buffalo, including a surprisingly close playoff win over Skylar Thompson. If Miami is even better this season and has a healthy Tua, why should they fare any worse this time around? I’m putting a lot of faith in Josh Allen’s brilliance and Sean McDermott’s coaching, because I feel like Buffalo isn’t ready to surrender the AFC East crown just yet. Bills -2.5
Carolina Panthers +4 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I mean…it never feels good to take Kirk Cousins as a road favorite, but Carolina hasn’t shown signs they’re ready to compete. I think going back to Bryce Young is the right move if he’s healthy, but Andy Dalton probably gave the Panthers a better chance to win in the short term. The Vikings pose some of the same challenges Seattle did last week, and the Seahawks put up 37 points; if Justin Jefferson has a day and Minnesota breaks 30, Carolina will need more than 4 to cover. Vikings -4
Houston Texans +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
C.J. Stroud has looked great through three weeks, but the Colts and Jags are both mediocre defensively. The Texans only managed 9 points against the Ravens in Week 1, and Pittsburgh’s defense might be even scarier. T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick will make life hard enough on the Houston offense to pick up a win on the road here. Steelers -3
Indianapolis Colts +1 vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Colts have been surprisingly good in their 2-1 start, and while they might have gotten a few lucky breaks against Baltimore last week, a win over a legitimate playoff contender still means a lot. The Rams couldn’t replicate their Week 1 offensive success against the 49ers or Bengals, but both of those defenses are capable of locking opponents up all game long. The Colts certainly don’t have the same level of talent on that side of the ball, and I think Stafford is due for a big day. Whether it’s Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew, they’ll be in trouble when they’re forced to pass against Aaron Donald. Rams -1
Cleveland Browns -3 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I think people are getting a little ahead of themselves with the Cleveland hype train, with Bill Simmons comparing them to the 2000 Baltimore Ravens on his podcast this week. Their defense is very good, and the talent backs up the performance for the most part, but those all-time defenses have capital-D DUDES in every position group; let’s give the Browns some games against real offenses before we put them in any pantheons. Baltimore might already be too injured to pose the type of threat I’d really like to see, but we still get to take Lamar Jackson and a full field goal here. I don’t think Deshaun Watson and the Cleveland offense will be topping 20 points, and Lamar should do just enough to cover even if the Ravens can’t win outright. Ravens +3
New Orleans Saints -3 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I don’t know how the Saints look better than ever on defense this year, but they haven’t given up 20 points yet. The Bucs have more talent than the other teams they’ve faced, but New Orleans also has a history of giving Mike Evans and some of Tampa’s best weapons trouble. I don’t feel great about it, but I like the Saints’ odds of getting the win at home. Saints -3
Philadelphia Eagles -8 vs. Washington Commanders
Washington played Philly tough last season, but they still lost by 16 in one of the meetings. I wish we were getting double digits here, but something about Eric Bienemy’s offense feels just dangerous enough to cause problems for the Eagles. Philadelphia has obviously looked good in their 3-0 start, but we haven’t seen the same kind of casual dominance they demonstrated down the stretch last year. This might be the week they recapture it, but I think it’s more likely we get a one-score finish. Commanders +8
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders might be missing Jimmy Garoppolo for this game, but are we sure that matters? He hasn’t been lighting the world on fire through three games, and he should be sad to miss this one because the Chargers’ defense looks eminently flammable. I think we’ve seen some encouraging signs from Justin Herbert in Kellen Moore’s offense, but until Brandon Staley figures out the defense this is way too big a line for a team with no home field advantage. Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams are more than enough to keep things competitive. Raiders +5.5
San Francisco 49ers -14 vs. Arizona Cardinals
My survivor league pick this week! Arizona has really exceeded expectations by being mediocre in their 1-2 start, and their upset of Dallas knocked out a big chunk of our pool and, I assume, most of the country’s. Unfortunately, the Cardinals get the 49ers this week, a team that beat them twice last season by a combined score of 76-23 and has scored 30 points in every game this year. I don’t think Arizona is sneaking up on anyone now, and the Niners won’t make the same mistakes Dallas did. 49ers -14
Dallas Cowboys -6.5 vs. New England Patriots
Speaking of the Cowboys! Mike McCarthy’s game mismanagement should be criminal, but Dallas fans are stuck with him as their head coach until Jerry Jones gets fed up. Dominant wins over the Giants and Jets are what we expect from a top team, but the Patriots present a much bigger challenge. Bill Belichick is going to have a great defensive gameplan, and if they can run the ball successfully (like Arizona did) they’ll muddy this game up and keep things interesting until the final drive. I don’t know if Mac Jones has enough to get the road win, but I like the Pats to cover. Patriots +6.5
New York Jets +9.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Of course the Chiefs should win this game, and I expect them to, but the Jets’ defense is still really good. If Mahomes and Andy Reid have a bit of an off day or Travis Kelce doesn’t run free like he did against the clueless Bears, I think the game will be closer than this line suggests even with Zach Wilson’s ineptitude. The Chiefs won 17 games last season including the playoffs, and 10 of those wins came by less than 10 points. I don’t think they’ll be out to make a statement here as much as just come out healthy and with a win, which leaves a lot of room for a backdoor cover. Jets +9.5
New York Giants -0.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Why is Seattle the underdog here? Last season Geno won this matchup 27-13, and since then it just seems like the Giants have gotten worse. I don’t know if the Giants have a big home field advantage to lean on, and until Daniel Jones shows he can run an offense without Saquon Barkley, I’m happy picking against him. Seahawks +0.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
