2023 NFL Picks Week 5: Feuds, New and Old
I wrote nearly 100 words to justify my pick of 49ers -14 over the Cardinals, and they pulled out the cover with two fourth quarter touchdowns! Then I checked the summary at the top of the piece and my official pick submission and realized I had selected Cardinals +14. We’re counting it as a loss, because it seems more likely y’all glance at the summary than read through my detailed justifications of each pick, but it’s a tough one to swallow. Win or lose that one, we had another good week and we’re sitting at a 64.5% success rate for the year. Let’s see if we can keep it up!
Washington Commanders -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears
Washington hung tight with the Eagles last week, but their two wins have come by a combined six points against teams ranked 16th and 29th in DVOA. The Bears, in 31st place, are worse than the Cardinals or Broncos, but are they really bad enough to justify a line of almost a touchdown against Sam Howell? Maybe, but I’m willing to take the points against a Washington team that has won just five games by a touchdown or more since the start of the 2021 season. Bears +6.5
Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jags have had an extra week to adjust to the time zone in London, but they’ll need to acclimate faster to Buffalo’s offense after beating an inept, Desmond Ridder-led Falcons team last week. The Bills are really rolling since their Week 1 loss to the Jets, and we haven’t seen anything from Jacksonville to suggest their offense can get the job done against good defenses. Buffalo ranks 2nd in defensive DVOA, so I doubt the Jags will get things on track here. Bills -5.5
Atlanta Falcons -1.5 vs. Houston Texans
Both teams are 2-2 but they’re trending in opposite directions. The Falcons started the year with wins over the Panthers and Packers before scoring just 13 total points in losses to the Lions and Jaguars; Houston lost their first two games to the Ravens and Colts before dominating the Jaguars and Steelers. DVOA and the eye test both tell me Houston is a considerably better team, and I won’t sweat such a small line against Atlanta until Desmond Ridder looks like he can run an offense. Texans +1.5
Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. Tennessee Titans
Tennessee has really been hot and cold this year, but the main trend is struggles against high-level defenses on the road. In two games in New Orleans and Cleveland, the Titans scored 15 and 3 points. In two home games against the Chargers and Bengals? 27 points both times. The Colts (17th) are a far cry from high-level, and they’ll be rolling a rookie quarterback out against Mike Vrabel’s 12th-ranked defense. The Titans have won their last five games against the Colts, and I don’t expect the streak to end here. Give me the point! Titans +1
Detroit Lions -9 vs. Carolina Panthers
A lot has changed since these teams met in Week 16 of last year, but this game will reveal a lot about both sides. Have the Lions really fixed their run defense enough to keep them in the top-10 on both sides of the ball all season? Have the Panthers already given up on new head coach Frank Reich and his dream team of assistant coaches? I haven’t seen much to like in Carolina, but this is a big line for what was a very lopsided matchup late last year. Let’s take the points and hope Goff makes a mistake or two to keep things close. Panthers +9
Miami Dolphins -9.5 vs. New York Giants
What is the Giants’ best defensive performance of the season? Holding the Seahawks to “just” 24, or “limiting” the 49ers to 30? There’s more wrong for the G-Men than just Daniel Jones’ play, but nothing about them suggests they’re ready for a track meet. Miami will be looking to bounce back from their loss to the Bills, and we know their offense won’t have a problem stacking up points; Danny Dimes facing a deficit is a recipe for disaster. Dolphins -9.5
New England Patriots -1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Patriots lost Christian Gonzalez and Matt Judon last week, but it’s clear from the way New Orleans lost to Tampa Bay that Derek Carr isn’t healthy. The Saints’ defense has been great, but if they give up 20+ to Mac Jones like they did Baker Mayfield, I don’t see Pete Carmichael scheming up enough offense to come away with a win. The Pats should be able to win this one by a field goal at home. Patriots -1.5
Pittsburgh Steelers +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens should absolutely be favored by 4 based on 2023 performance. Pittsburgh is somehow 2-2 despite a -38 point differential, while Baltimore is sitting at 3-1 and +41. There’s just something about this matchup that scares me away from favorites. Pittsburgh and Baltimore play each other at least twice a year, and you have to go back to 2019 to find the last time either team won by more than 5 points. Pittsburgh is 5-1 in the games since then, and they’ve allowed an average of 16.5 points per game in that stretch. Can Baltimore hold Pittsburgh to 12 or less? It’s possible, but I like my odds with a line this big for the home team. Steelers +4
Arizona Cardinals +3 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow isn’t close to healthy and the Cincinnati defense is really struggling in the aftermath of their offseason departures. This line makes me think Vegas and/or the public are slow to realize that Arizona is…perfectly fine! I wouldn’t say they’re good or scary, but frisky certainly feels appropriate, and that’s plenty against this version of the Bengals. Until we see Burrow look comfortable, I’m okay picking against him as a road favorite. Cardinals +3
Los Angeles Rams +4.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I really like what we’ve seen from Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford this year, but the only good team they’ve faced is the 49ers and they lost by a full touchdown. Philadelphia hasn’t, and maybe won’t, recapture the magic they had down the stretch last year, but they’re still very good on both sides of the ball and should enjoy at least a neutral fan situation traveling to Los Angeles. I don’t think this version of the Rams is ready to contend with the big boys of the NFC just yet. Eagles -4.5
Denver Broncos -2 vs. New York Jets
Sean Payton vs. Nathaniel Hackett! Just the matchup we all dreamed of heading into the season. Payton and the Broncos have been getting a lot of heat for starting 1-3 and nearly losing to the Chicago Bears, but Payton has coached Russell Wilson to the 13th-best offense by DVOA; that side of the ball has to be considered a success. Unfortunately, their defense has been historically bad, giving up 44 points per game since holding the hapless Raiders to 17 in Week 1. You know what the best cure for an inept defense is? Zach Wilson. As I mentioned heading into the season, the Jets only have one real pass-catching weapon in Garrett Wilson, and Denver can throw Patrick Surtain II at him. I don’t know why public perception is so slow to laugh at the joke that is the Jets, but I can bet against them in the meantime. Broncos -2
Minnesota Vikings +5.5 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
I’ve mentioned before my distrust of the Chiefs when they’re laying a big line, because while they win a heck of a lot of games they seem to only dominate in stretches. Unfortunately for Minnesota, the 20th-ranked defense and a one-dimensional offense doesn’t put them in a good position to keep things close against Patrick Mahomes. If this line climbed to 7 or more I’d have to pause and worry about a Justin Jefferson backdoor cover, but Kansas City and Steve Spagnuolo should have enough answers to win by a touchdown. Chiefs -5.5
San Francisco 49ers -3.5 vs. Dallas Cowboys
This line feels like it’s a point or a half-point too big, but I try to follow the “strong opinions, loosely held” guidance that no one wants to hear from billionaires. Here’s a strong opinion: Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers own the Dallas Cowboys. Shanahan took over as the head coach of the Niners in 2017, and he lost to Dallas 40-10 with C.J. Beathard at the helm. They didn’t play again until 2020, when Dallas won 41-33 against a combination of Beathard and Nick Mullens. Since then (when the Niners added competent QB play to their arsenal), they’ve met in the playoffs twice, and San Francisco is 2-0. Mike McCarthy isn’t going to solve the defense that held Kellen Moore’s unit to 29 points in two games, and we’ve seen how vulnerable this much-ballyhooed Cowboys’ defense can be against a committed running game (30 carries for 222 yards against the Cardinals). I’m always happy to bet against McCarthyism. 49ers -3.5
Las Vegas Raiders -1 vs. Green Bay Packers
So Green Bay loses to the Lions, who are 3rd in DVOA, and now they’re underdogs against the 30th-ranked Raiders? From what I can tell, the Packers have advantages at head coach, rest (they played on Thursday night last week), offensive DVOA, and defensive DVOA. They have a better record (2-2 vs. 1-3), a better point differential (+4 to -39), and…a home field advantage? Are there really more Raiders fans in Vegas than Packers fans headed there? I think not. Maybe the Raiders can turn their special teams advantage into three touchdowns and an unlikely victory, but that’s a chance I’m willing to take. Packers +1
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
