2023 NFL Picks Week 6: The Kellen Moore Bowl
We had our first losing week of the season, but it wasn’t a total catastrophe and we collected some valuable information going forward: Joe Burrow looked like his calf might be improving even before Cincy’s bye week; the Jets looked like a team coached by Nathaniel Hackett (oh THAT’s why their failed end-of-half sequence looked so familiar) despite a win; and the Cowboys have some real weaknesses to address before returning to “true contender” status. To the picks!
Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 vs. Denver Broncos
Well, I had a pretty easy explanation for this one: Denver had lost 15 straight games to the Chiefs coming into Thursday Night Football, but even last year the losses were close. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense hasn’t really clicked, and while the Broncos have been historically bad on defense, their offense has been surprisingly mediocre! I would have felt great if I knew Kansas City would only score 19, but that was just enough to beat our pick by a half point. Drat. Broncos +10.5
Tennessee Titans +4 vs. Baltimore Ravens
I really wanted to take the Titans as home underdogs, but I think Baltimore is due for a statement game. Their loss to the Steelers was every bit as chaotic as we predicted, but they easily could have won by multiple scores if they cut their blatant drops in half. Tennessee, meanwhile, couldn’t get a win against the Colts despite Anthony Richardson leaving the game early (again), and hasn’t reached 20 points against a team ranked in the top 20 in defensive DVOA. Baltimore comes into this game ranked 2nd, and they’re pairing it with the 11th-ranked offense. If we’re going to see the Ravens make noise this season, this is the game for them to kick things off. Ravens -4
Jacksonville Jaguars -4 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Jacksonville is coming off two weeks in London and facing one of the league’s better backup quarterbacks in Gardner Minshew. There’s a big part of me that wants to take the underdog Colts, but Trevor Lawrence has played well against the Colts in the past and it seems like Jacksonville might have ironed out some of their early-season issues in back-to-back wins over the Falcons and Bills. They won by 10 in Indianapolis in Week 1, and I think they can win by a touchdown again at home. Jaguars -4
Houston Texans +1.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints have been pretty solid this year, but their competition has been weighed, measured, and found wanting. Wins over the Titans, Panthers, and Patriots don’t inspire much confidence, and C.J. Stroud has been head and shoulders above any other quarterback New Orleans has faced. Houston lost a tough one last week, but I think they have what it takes to bounce back at home. Texans +1.5
Cleveland Browns +4.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
We got this line before finding out Deshaun Watson would be unavailable on Sunday, but I’m not particularly scared by the updated 9.5 line either. Cleveland is coming off a bye, but they gave up 28 points to Baltimore in Week 4 in their only game against a good offense. Whether it’s Watson or Dorian Thompson-Robinson, the Browns’ offense is going to struggle against Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, and the Niners’ defense. Is Jim Schwartz enough to hold Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy under 30 points? I doubt it. 49ers -4.5
Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Joe Burrow looked much improved in Cincy’s big win over Arizona last week, but it’s important to remember what we thought of the Cardinals coming into the season. They’ve shown some fight, but they rank 30th in defensive DVOA. Seattle is a much better opponent on both sides of the ball, and this line makes it seem like we’re positive the Bengals have regained last year’s stride. Even if Burrow continues getting healthier, Geno Smith should have a good time going against Cincy’s 23rd-ranked defense. I need some more evidence before I’m taking the Bengals as favorites against a top-10 team. Seahawks +2.5
Chicago Bears +3 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I know I shouldn’t be this excited to pick the Bears, but Justin Jefferson is injured and Alexander Mattison might be the least scary starting running back in the league. Sure, Kirk Cousins will be able to make some plays against a very soft Chicago secondary, but can Justin Fields and the Bears take advantage of Minnesota’s 19th-ranked defense? I like them to at least keep things close. Bears +3
Atlanta Falcons -2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Atlanta pulled out a nice win over Houston last week, but I still have a lot of questions about what they can really be on offense. The Falcons are only averaging a little over 16 points per game, and Desmond Ridder needs to prove a lot. Washington hasn’t covered themselves in glory, but they’re a good enough team to keep things close against a bad defense and questionable passing game. They can’t look as bad as they did trying to tackle D.J. Moore, right? Commanders +2.5
Miami Dolphins -14 vs. Carolina Panthers
In addition to being super fun to watch, Miami is exactly the kind of team I don’t mind picking to cover big spreads against the dregs of the league. Their defense isn’t good enough to let them really sit on an early lead, and the way their offense produces explosive plays means they’re rarely handing it off to kill clock without accidentally scoring a touchdown along the way. Carolina can’t do anything right at the moment, and I don’t think they’ll get things turned around before their bye next week. Dolphins -14
Las Vegas Raiders -3 vs. New England Patriots
I don’t have a good explanation for how the Patriots can lose by a combined score of 72-3 over the past two weeks. Dallas made a little bit of sense because of the way their defense can turn up the pressure after getting a lead, but 34-0 to New Orleans? At home? Yuck. The only less appetizing thing I can think of is Josh McDaniels giving a full field goal to an opponent! Las Vegas is considerably worse on defense than the Cowboys or Saints, and their 31st-ranked offense doesn’t inspire much confidence either. It’s been ugly for New England these past couple of weeks, but it’s been ugly for Josh McDaniels’ teams forever. Patriots +3
New York Jets +6.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Ahh what a world we live in! The Zach Wilson-led Jets go into Denver and manage one offensive touchdown against a historically bad defense, and they’re getting less than a touchdown against Philadelphia the very next week. The Jets’ defense is good, but we haven’t seen it really dominate this year, and they won’t be slowing down the Eagles’ ground game enough to turn it into a slog. On the other side of the ball? I just wish I could listen to Cris Collinsworth talk about Zach Wilson’s abilities while he’s facing a defense with a crazy interior pass rush. This one will get ugly fast. Eagles -6.5
Los Angeles Rams -6 vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Rams have been a fun story this season, but they’ve only won one game by more than one score. It’s possible Arizona is falling back to earth after their surprisingly good start, but I think it’s more likely we see Josh Dobbs continue to manage games well enough to keep them interesting except against the very best teams. As much as I love Stafford and Aaron Donald, I don’t think the Rams are in that class of teams yet. Cardinals +6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 vs. Detroit Lions
Yax and I talked about it on the podcast, and we both agree this version of the Lions is for real. They patched up their most glaring defensive problems in the offseason, and Sam LaPorta has added a very dangerous element to their already-impressive offense. There’s just something about this matchup I don’t like, though. It could be the combination of Baker Mayfield’s irrational confidence and downfield targets like Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, or it could be the pesky ghosts of disappointing Lions’ seasons past; either way, I’m taking the home team and the points here. Buccaneers +3
Buffalo Bills -14 vs. New York Giants
It pains me to acknowledge I don’t have a lot of confidence in the Bills making it all the way this year after losing both Tre’Davious White and Matt Milano for the season, because they’re still really good and extremely fun to watch. I just think those holes will be too big of a problem when the playoffs roll around. Of course, they aren’t playing a playoff-caliber team this week, they’re playing the very broken New York Giants. Daniel Jones and the Giants’ offense have faced a tough schedule, but 6 TDs in 5 games is inexcusable. Pair it with a 28th-ranked defense and you have a great combination for losing by double digits! Bills -14
Los Angeles Chargers +2 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Two pretty evenly matched teams by the numbers, so why are the Chargers getting two points at home? I’m sure part of it is their utter lack of home field advantage since moving to Los Angeles; the crowd for this one should be at least three-quarters Cowboys’ fans. Brandon Staley might be one of the few coaches who doesn’t have a distinct advantage over Mike McCarthy. I want this to be an easy pick, but I also want the Chargers to be good and get over that hump after years of underperformance. Through four games, they’re 2-2 with a +6 point differential and zero wins over teams with a winning record. I think Dallas bounces back, especially on defense, and wins by at least a field goal. Cowboys -2
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
