2023 NFL Picks Week 7: A Night in Philly
We’ll start this week’s edition with a story. I think it was 2011 but the exact year doesn’t matter. We were in Philadelphia to celebrate a double birthday, and on the way home someone in the group threw up out the window of the cab we were in. We tipped a considerable amount of extra money for the mess and continued on our walk home; unfortunately, the cab driver continued the walk home as well, yelling at us loudly enough to draw attention. Some of the folks hearing the call were police (Philadelphia, Drexel, not entirely sure) and they proceeded to shake us down for the money in our pockets before sending us on our way.
I haven’t been back to Philly since because it wasn’t a great first experience and I didn’t want to tempt the city’s wrath further. I felt the pain again this past week when Jalen Hurts let go of that pass off his back foot on 3rd and 9, lofting the ball over the middle into double coverage for an interception that gave the Jets an easy lead instead of making them rely on Zach Wilson to go 60 yards in about a minute of game time, knocking me out of my survivor pool. In one case, it was a group of police, in the other, it was Jalen Hurts. Philly just wasn’t done with me yet, I guess.
On to the picks!
New Orleans Saints -1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
I was pretty nervous about Trevor Lawrence’s injury heading into the game, but we haven’t seen Derek Carr look particularly good with his own shoulder problems. I was counting on Lawrence’s ability to avoid the Saints’ pass rush and get just enough done to win a game in the 20s. The total didn’t quite play out the way I expected, but we’re 1-0 to start the week! Jaguars +1
Indianapolis Colts +2 vs. Cleveland Browns
We’re still unsure about the Browns’ starting quarterback, but I’m not sure how much it matters here. Indianapolis has played better than most expected with the 14th-ranked offense and 17th-ranked defense heading into Week 7. Anthony Richardson is out for the year, and while I like what Gardner Minshew can do as a backup QB, the change definitely lowers the Colts’ ceiling. Without the variance Richardson provided, Cleveland’s defense is plenty good enough to cover a field goal here. Browns -2
Baltimore Ravens -3 vs. Detroit Lions
I’m a bit surprised by this line. I’m high on the Ravens despite an uneven 4-2 start because their defense is exceeding expectations and I remember what Lamar Jackson was like in his MVP season. But with each game it gets a little harder to believe that version of the Lamar offense is ever coming back. It seems like there’s always something preventing the Ravens from really going off on offense; Lamar hasn’t passed for 300 yards since Week 2 of last season, and it only happened twice in 2021-22. The Lions seem to maximize their chances week in and week out by playing well on both sides of the ball and letting other teams beat themselves. Given what we’ve seen from both teams so far, I thought we’d see Baltimore -2.5 at the highest, so I’m happy to take the full field goal. Lions +3
New York Giants +2.5 vs. Washington Commanders
Can we just pass on this one? These division rivals have played close games in the recent past and split the results so we don’t have much to go on there. Tyrod Taylor is starting in place of Daniel Jones, but it’s possible the swap will benefit the Giants by cutting down on mistakes and turnovers. Sam Howell has had good moments, but he takes far too many sacks and lost to the Bears. I don’t think there’s enough separating these teams to justify the Commanders being favored on the road, so we’ll go with the home team. Giants +2.5
Chicago Bears +3 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Usually I’d have similar words for the Raiders as I do the Commanders above, but a special case needs to be made for this version of the Chicago Bears with Tyson Bagent under center. We’ve talked about him plenty on our podcast, but we recently learned he’s the son of a controversial figure in the world of armwrestling, so that’s…nice? Let’s just say I don’t have much faith in Bagent to score more points for the Bears than he does their opponent. Raiders -3
New England Patriots +9.5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Since Josh Allen really took off in 2020, the Bills are 6-1 against the Patriots with a point differential of +95. The only loss came on a day with freakishly strong winds and a 64-yard touchdown run from Damien Harris. Do you think this version of the Pats should do any better than last year’s? Me neither. Bills -9.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Division games are often weird, but I think Tampa Bay just knows who they are and what they’re doing better than Atlanta does. Baker Mayfield isn’t special, but he can do a few things well and the Bucs seem to be leaning into the play-action game and throws to the outside he’s comfortable with. Their defense is playing well enough to limit even the Lions to just 20 points, and they shouldn’t have much more trouble with Desmond Ridder. Baker can get us a field goal at home. Buccaneers -2.5
Los Angeles Rams -3.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I usually like the Steelers in situations like this, getting points on the road against an opponent with no real home field advantage. They’ve just been so unpleasant on offense that it’s hard to trust them unless games get really weird, like Week 5 against the Ravens. I’ll regret this pick if the game is 10-10 midway through the third quarter, but I like what I’ve seen from Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford too much to think it’s going that way. Rams -3.5
Seattle Seahawks -7.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Seattle needs a win here after a strange loss to the Bengals (384 total yards, 13 points), and Arizona hasn’t looked like the plucky upstart they were through Week 3, losing their last three games by an average of more than 16 points per game. The Cardinals have been better at running the ball than anything else, but Seattle’s run defense is the best in the league so far this year. I’m thinking blowout, and that isn’t just because I stayed home with our 10-month old today. Seahawks -7.5
Denver Broncos +1.5 vs. Green Bay Packers
This is another one I wish I didn’t have to pick, but here we are. Green Bay definitely sucks, because you can’t top out at 13 points against the Raiders if you’re decent. Denver’s defense can make anyone look good, though, as evidenced by the Bears’ 28 points in Week 4. It doesn’t feel great, but I’ll take the Packers coming off a bye, especially if it means Aaron Jones can make it onto the field again. If not? Well, we can always hope the Broncos just implode. Packers -1.5
Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
It’s been a strange year for Kansas City, whose 5-1 record and 5th-place ranking in DVOA somehow feels like a disappointment. Their defense has been better than any time in recent memory while the offense has been just…okay. I’m not sure that makes them worse than years prior, especially in terms of a playoff run, but it takes some getting used to. I didn’t like anything I saw from the Chargers against Dallas last week, but they’ve kept things close against the Chiefs in the past (2-4 with a point differential of +8 in the last six meetings) and I don’t expect much of a difference this time around. Chargers +5.5
Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
I probably couldn’t have picked this game fairly with my aforementioned history with Philadelphia, and the miserable interception from Jalen Hurts has been playing on repeat in my brain all week. Miami has been so good on offense that they’re actually ahead of the Eagles in total DVOA despite fielding the league’s 27th-ranked defense. If we’d seen consistent performance from Philadelphia’s offense this season I’d be willing to take their side, but after struggling against lesser teams the last few weeks I’m happy to take the points with the league’s best offense by a mile. Dolphins +2.5
Minnesota Vikings +7 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Vikings and Kirk Cousins with no Justin Jefferson, no run game, and the league’s 15th-ranked defense against a pissed off version of the 49ers? Minnesota doesn’t lose by a full touchdown and extra point often (six times since the start of last year) but they haven’t played a team like this since they lost 40-3 to Dallas in Week 11 last year. The 49ers are just too good on both sides of the ball and too well-coached to let Minnesota keep things close. 49ers -7
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
