2024 NFL Picks Week 10: Sifting Through Injuries
We were lucky to come out so far ahead last week with some fascinating finishes, but the lines this week aren’t filling me with optimism. This is a tricky time of year when some players are playing through injuries and others are returning for the first time, and we have to sort through it all to decide which versions of teams will take the field on Sunday. Let’s see how it goes!
Baltimore Ravens -6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I started out thinking classic AFC North chaos would reign and give us a close game between two high-powered offenses, but with Baltimore at home and the Bengals missing Tee Higgins I shied away from the underdog. Naturally Ja’Marr Chase just put up the stats of two wide receivers and the Bengals nearly pulled off an outright win, and we’re 0-1 to start the week. Ravens -6
Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs. New York Giants (in Germany)
I really thought about taking the Panthers here; they’re coming off their best performance of the season, Bryce Young looked like a regular bad quarterback instead of a historically bad one, and seeing the Giants as big favorites just feels off. However! Daniel Jones and the New York offense has been kind of fine, the “home team” designation for Carolina is a mirage with the game being played in Germany, and it’s just hard to envision the Panthers being competitive two games in a row right now. I probably won’t wake up to watch it, but I think the winning margin should be at least a touchdown. Giants -6.5
New Orleans Saints +3.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons
I prefer taking the Falcons as underdogs, but this New Orleans team is in a rare place. They fired Head Coach Dennis Allen after their embarrassing loss to Carolina last week, and while I’d usually expect a bit of a new coach bump, this one doesn’t feel right. The Saints are just missing too many pieces; if they’re going to score 24 in this game it needs to be all Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara with Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed both out. I’m still not scared of Atlanta come playoff time, but Kirk should get a win here and move a little closer to sealing up the NFC South. Falcons -3.5
Indianapolis Colts +4 vs. Buffalo Bills
There are some legitimate reasons to be hesitant about Buffalo, but I liked their trade for Amari Cooper and it should look like a better fit every week going forward. Indianapolis will struggle to get big plays against this Bills’ defense, and I can’t count on Joe Flacco to lead multiple long scoring drives. If Josh Allen and the Bills are real contenders, they’ll win this one by a touchdown. Bills -4
Kansas City Chiefs -9 vs. Denver Broncos
If the Chiefs are going to cover this spread, they’ll need Steve Spagnuolo to put Bo Nix in a blender and DeAndre Hopkins to continue assimilating rapidly. Both are possible, but I don’t feel comfortable betting on them both to happen this week. Denver’s defense is good enough to keep Mahomes playing methodically, and I think Sean Payton can coach Nix to a competent performance with a few big scrambling conversions. I expect long drives and not a lot of points, so I’ll take the underdog and the two scores. Broncos +9
Jacksonville Jaguars +7 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The wheels are going to fall off the Minnesota offense at some point, but a matchup with Jacksonville’s 31st-ranked defense isn’t the speed bump to make it happen. With Mac Jones filling in for Trevor Lawrence, the Jags get all of the high-risk plays without any of the high-end tools that make them work out occasionally. Brian Flores should have a field day, and the Vikings are good enough to score four touchdowns here. Vikings -7
Chicago Bears -6 vs. New England Patriots
I know the Bears have looked terrible lately, but it’s possible the Commanders and Cardinals are better than we’re all accustomed to thinking. The Patriots are not; Drake Maye has made their offense a bit more interesting, but Chicago should be able to generate turnovers and points on defense even if Caleb Williams can’t regain his earlier-season footing. If we can’t win by a touchdown at home against this Pats team, we should be looking to hire a new coach mid-season. Bears -6
Washington Commanders -2.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington’s defense has been playing great lately and Jayden Daniels is showing no signs of hitting a rookie wall, but taking Mike Tomlin and the Russell Wilson moonball offense as underdogs is too tempting to pass up. It’s never pretty, it’s almost never convincing, but Pittsburgh is 6-2 for a reason. They limit their mistakes and they force opponents to play their way, and I’m not sure the Commanders offense is ready to carry them through a test like this just yet. Steelers +2.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
The Niners have a huge rest advantage in this game, coming off their bye week while the Bucs played on Monday night. It sounds like they’ll have Christian McCaffrey back in the lineup, and when he’s been available they’ve routed just about everyone. I don’t like the coaching matchup either, as Kyle Shanahan has cruised against Todd Bowles in the past. But something about the Niners hasn’t felt right all year, and until I see them put it all together and stomp a good team, I’m worried they’re in a Super Bowl slump. Until they prove otherwise, this is too many points for a team with similar credentials to be getting at home. Buccaneers +6.5
Los Angeles Chargers -7.5 vs. Tennessee Titans
I don’t know if the Chargers’ defense is legitimate enough to push them towards the top of my “contender” rankings, but it has repeatedly demonstrated the ability to shut down bad offenses. In games against teams ranked 30th, 29th, 24th, 30th, and 22nd in Offensive DVOA, Los Angeles has given up 10, 3, 16, 8, and 10 points, respectively. The Titans’ offense ranks 28th. Justin Herbert has been looking better each week, and he can absolutely stomp this opponent. Chargers -7.5
Arizona Cardinals +1.5 vs. New York Jets
Aaron Rodgers is favored on the road here against a team with a better record (5-4 vs. 3-6), point differential (-7 to -12), and DVOA ranking (15th to 22nd). Of course the Jets can win this game, but we haven’t seen nearly enough that we should be banking on it. Let’s go Cards! Cardinals +1.5
Dallas Cowboys +7.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I don’t want to take Nick Sirianni as a big favorite! But I have to. Dallas is in shambles, and without Dak Prescott they won’t be good at the only thing they’ve succeeded at all year. The Eagles should be able to hand the ball to Saquon Barkley all day and come away with a two-score win, so even their bizarre coaching decisions can’t stop me from picking them to cover here against Cooper Rush. Eagles -7.5
Houston Texans +3 vs. Detroit Lions
We could still have an instant classic on our hands here, but I felt more confident in that before Houston’s offense fell apart this season. Jared Goff and the Detroit offense are moving too smoothly for me to think they’ll struggle all game in an indoor stadium, and C.J. Stroud has just been under too much pressure to keep up with the best opponents. I would think twice if this line was over a field goal, but I like Detroit to win by a full score. Lions -3
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 vs. Miami Dolphins
This line has moved down to Rams -1 and I can’t figure out why. Miami’s offense has played pretty well in the two games since Tua returned, scoring 27 points against the Cardinals and Bills. Of course, they lost both of those games because their defense is 28th in DVOA and has only played well against the Colts and Patriots. Matthew Stafford and Sean McVay seem to have things moving the right direction, and their offensive line and receiver rooms are both getting healthier. I don’t see any way the Rams fall short of 30 points, and this isn’t the Dolphins’ offense of years past. Even if it’s an exciting affair, the Rams should win by a field goal. Rams -2.5
That's all for this week! Grab a drink, throw on our preview podcast, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
