2024 NFL Picks Week 16: Who's Still Healthy?
Somehow last week felt like it was more successful than “just” 9-7, but we here at Questionably Qualified aren’t greedy! We’ll take a winning week any way we can get it. Including these games, we only have three weeks of regular season action left; let’s finish strong and carry some of that mythical momentum into the playoffs!
Los Angeles Chargers -3 vs. Denver Broncos
I like Justin Herbert and the Chargers a lot, and their turnaround in Year 1 of the Harbaugh Era is impressive. Their offense is just delicate. They haven’t been able to run the ball since J.K. Dobbins went down with his injury, and Justin Herbert’s injured ankle might be too much for them to take. Even if I don’t trust Bo Nix and Sean Payton against the league’s top teams, there’s no reason to think they won’t be within a field goal here. Broncos +3
Cincinnati Bengals -7 vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns appear to be done with Jameis Winston, and I’m done with them either way. I thought they’d be able to produce enough explosive plays on offense to hang with the Chiefs last week, but we might have seen the last of their offensive highlights in that wild loss to the Broncos. Cincinnati obviously won’t hold them to seven points, but the Bengals’ offense is too good to ignore. At home against Dorian Thompson-Robinson is one of the few spots I’m willing to take Cincy laying a whole touchdown. Bengals -7
Kansas City Chiefs +2 vs. Houston Texans
This line makes perfect sense, and I can’t wait to take the Chiefs. I’m assuming Carson Wentz is filling in for Patrick Mahomes, but Andy Reid just loves these situations. The Texans’ offense is still broken, as evidenced by their struggles against Miami last week, and if you combine a little Steve Spagnuolo gameplan with some standard Chiefs’ voodoo and two extra points? No hesitation. Chiefs +2
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m just going to copy and paste this section from my Week 11 write-up: “Pittsburgh has actually won seven of their last eight games against the Ravens, and while that includes some games without Lamar Jackson, it’s still eye-opening. According to an article on The Ringer, the underdog of 3+ points in this matchup in the Harbaugh-Tomlin era is 18-2-3 against the spread.” Update that to “eight of their last nine” and “19-2-3 against the spread”; We’re taking the Steelers because I’d feel silly not to with a history like that. Steelers +6.5
Chicago Bears +7 vs. Detroit Lions
Maybe I’m being dramatic, but it feels like the Bears have passed the point of no return. Their coaching room is too jumbled to find solutions and their defense is falling apart with Eberflus gone. Sure, the Detroit defense is running out of bodies, but their offense is still a steamroller and Chicago’s offense doesn’t hold a candle to Buffalo’s. 41-28 seems like a reasonable prediction. Lions -7
Atlanta Falcons -10 vs. New York Giants
The Raiders were oh-so-close to covering a smaller spread than this on Monday Night Football, and apparently it was ugly enough to convince Atlanta to start Michael Penix in place of Kirk Cousins this week. I think the Giants are probably worse than the Raiders, but I’m not banking on the Falcons to cover double digits against anyone. Giants +10
Buffalo Bills -14 vs. New England Patriots
Buffalo is on a mission and the Patriots just happen to be in the way. Drake Maye has put a little juice into New England’s offense, but there’s no way he’s ready to face what Sean McDermott is running out this year. Unless Josh Allen reverts to all of his worst habits in one week, he should get the Bills past 30 points. I don’t think the Pats can keep up. Bills -14
Indianapolis Colts -4 vs. Tennessee Titans
Mason Rudolph is filling in for Will Levis, so the Titans’ offense should at least commit fewer entirely insane turnovers. With my serious concerns about Anthony Richardson, I don’t think Indianapolis should be favored by more than a field goal against any but the very worst teams in the league; they haven’t won a single game by more than 6 points all year, and they’ve only won by four or more twice. I don’t say this often, but let’s go Mason Rudolph! Titans +4
Washington Commanders +3 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
I want to take the Commanders so badly here, but their defense just doesn’t stand a chance against Philly’s run game. The only way to beat the Eagles is to air it out on offense and make Jalen Hurts beat you, and Washington can only do one of those things. I hope I’m wrong, because I’d love to see the Lions get a little breathing room for the 1-seed, but Philadelphia is too dominant to win by less than a field goal. Eagles -3
New York Jets +3 vs. Los Angeles Rams
A close loss to the Dolphins and a close win over the Jaguars has people back on the Jets-wagon! I can’t figure this line out; the Jets are 2-5 at home this year and the Rams are currently leading the NFC West, and we think only a field goal separates these teams? Forget it, let’s ride with Matt Stafford. Rams -3
Carolina Panthers +4 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Three straight losses to the Seahawks, Vikings, and Seahawks again threw everyone off the Arizona scent. They’re not a top-tier team, but they’re capable of handling mediocre opponents and racking up points against lesser defenses. Carolina’s defense isn’t good enough to give Bryce Young extra possessions, and he’d need them to keep this one within a touchdown. Cardinals -4
Seattle Seahawks +4 vs. Minnesota Vikings
I’m not getting burned by the Seahawks against the NFC North again! Geno Smith might be injured, and I have big questions about the Seattle offense even when he’s on the field. Brian Flores must be looking forward to this matchup, and while I like what the Seattle defense has done recently, I don’t think they generate the kind of in-your-face pressure that really causes problems for Sam Darnold. Minnesota should win by a touchdown. Vikings -4
Las Vegas Raiders -1 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Both of these teams are really bad. I don’t think there’s enough of a gap to justify anything besides the standard home line, so I guess I’m taking Las Vegas at home against Mac Jones. Raiders -1
Miami Dolphins -1.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Both offenses looked terrible last week, but at least the Niners can blame it on the weather. Miami just had no answers for what Houston threw at them, and while San Francisco doesn’t pose the same challenge, they should be able to lift some of the Texans’ playbook on a long week. I don’t have enough faith in Tua or the rest of the Dolphins to take them as favorites in this spot. 49ers +1.5
Dallas Cowboys +4 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Does anyone else actually watch the Bucs’ games? They just keep picking up wins over quality teams, and the Cooper Rush Cowboys aren’t the team to take advantage of their weaknesses. Give me Todd Bowles against an inexperienced quarterback and Mike Evans against what’s left of the Dallas secondary. Buccaneers -4
Green Bay Packers -13.5 vs. New Orleans Saints
We can add Alvin Kamara to the list of injured offensive players for the Saints, and now I really don’t know where they’re supposed to find points. Even if the New Orleans defense has been playing well, they don’t have the full set of pieces across the board to give Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay offense real trouble. With the Packers at home, I’m banking on them to cover a big spread. Packers -13.5
That's all for this week! Kick back, grab a drink, and feel free to blame me if you put money on these picks and come out behind. I won't compensate you, but maybe your significant others will send their wrath my way instead of yours.
